The fifth-ranked North Carolina Tar Heels are off to a strong start in 2020, winning each of their first three games for the first time since 2011. They’ve posted six straight victories dating back to last season, their longest winning streak since an 11-gamer in 2015. The Tar Heels attempt to extend the run when they visit the ACC-rival Florida State Seminoles on Saturday. Kickoff from Bobby Bowden Field at Doak Campbell Stadium in Tallahassee is set for 7:30 p.m. ET. North Carolina (3-0, 3-0 ACC) won just one of its previous 17 meetings with Florida State before posting 37-35 victories in the last two — both of which were in Tallahassee.
The Seminoles (1-3, 0-3) enter this matchup having allowed 118 points over their last three contests. The Tar Heels are 13.5-point favorites in the latest North Carolina vs. Florida State odds from William Hill, while the over-under for total points scored is 64.5. Before making any Florida State vs. North Carolina picks, check out the college football predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every FBS college football game 10,000 times. Over the past four-plus years, the proprietary computer model has generated a stunning profit of over $4,200 for $100 players on its top-rated college football picks against the spread. It is a sizzling 23-6 on top-rated picks through six weeks of the 2020 college football season, returning almost $1,300 in profit already. Anyone who has followed it has seen huge returns.
- North Carolina vs. Florida State spread: Tar Heels -13.5
- North Carolina vs. Florida State over-under: 64.5 points
- North Carolina vs. Florida State money line: Tar Heels -500, Seminoles +400
- UNC: The Tar Heels are 6-1 against the spread in their last seven games as favorites
- FSU: The Seminoles are 1-6 ATS in their last seven contests
Why North Carolina can cover
The Tar Heels put on quite an offensive display in their 56-45 triumph over then-No. 19 Virginia Tech last Saturday, scoring touchdowns on eight of their 12 possessions — including each of the first three. Five of the scores came on the ground, where they gained 399 yards by averaging 9.3 per carry. Senior Michael Carter and junior Javonte Williams set career highs with 214 and 169 yards, respectively, while recording a pair of TDs apiece.
Although they gave up 45 points and 495 yards against the Hokies, the Tar Heels possess one of the top defensive units in the ACC. North Carolina is fourth in the conference in total defense (350 yards allowed), rushing defense (122.7) and passing defense (227.3) while ranking fifth in points allowed (24.3). The club also is averaging 3.7 sacks per game, which is good for fourth in the ACC.
Why Florida State can cover
Jordan Travis‘ first career start under center was a solid one, as the redshirt sophomore accounted for 300 yards of offense against the then-No. 5 Fighting Irish on Saturday. In addition to completing 13-of-24 pass attempts for 204 yards and a touchdown, Travis was the Seminoles’ leading rusher, gaining a career-high 96 yards while also running for a score. Florida State finished with 405 yards of total offense, marking the first time the Seminoles eclipsed 400 against a top-10 opponent since doing so against 10th-ranked Miami in 2016.
Travis is multi-talented, as he started as a wide receiver at Miami on Sept. 26, when he caught (one reception, five yards), ran (seven carries, 52 yards) and threw (1-of-2, 12 yards) the ball. He claimed the starting quarterback job after an effort in a 41-24 victory over Jacksonville State on Oct. 3 in which he was 12-of-17 for 210 yards and a TD after he relieved Tate Rodemaker with Florida State trailing 14-0. Travis has recorded both a passing and rushing touchdown in each of the last two games while La’Damian Webb has run for a total of three scores in those contests.
How to make North Carolina vs. Florida State picks
SportsLine’s model is leaning under on the total. In fact, it says neither team will produce a 100-yard rusher or receiver in the simulations. It also has generated an against-the-spread pick that cashes in well over 50 percent of simulations. You can only get the pick at SportsLine.
So who wins FSU vs. UNC? And which side of the spread hits well over 50 percent of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the North Carolina vs. Florida State spread to back, all from the advanced model that is up over $4,200 on its top-rated college football spread picks, and find out.